View Full Version : Lukasz's (6.8% yield from 169 bets)
Method:
1. Predicting averge number of goals home and away team should score in their game.
2. Counting the probabilities of particular outcomes using Poisson distribution of the above averages.
3. Converting probabilities into odds and comparing them with those on the market in search of value.
Succesfully backtested on EPL and 1.Bundesliga 2000-2003.
Result so far this season (1X2 odds):
No. of bets: 133
Profit/Loss: 18.38
Yield: 13.8%
The above will, of course, not be included in the system's proofing.
I also plan to use mostly AH odds because of the lower bookies overround.
Warning:
No additional analyse is made. Injuries and motivation not taken into consideration.
This is just a test. I don't bet my money on it nor do I advise you to.
Record:
No of bets: 169
Invested: 1438
Return: 1536.1
Profit/Loss: 98.1
Yield: 6.8%
You must have noticed I had dropped my decission to bet mostly on Asian Handicap. It's because a better value in three way bets isn't as rare as I had expected.
At the same time I adopted a fixed profit strategy (since I find it superior to the flat stake ; it wouldn't make such a difference earlier since the AH odds come in very narrow range).
Furthermore, it became obvious to me that the previous procedure of keeping records (i.e. just counting the nr of bets and the profit) is not apropriate anymore. Now I need to recount the records:
Since adopting the new strategy, I've been "asking" each bet to win 10 units. If I set the maximum stake to 10 and write each stake in x/10 format, I'll get stakes exceeding the maximum (on the odds below 2).
That's why I decide to set the maximum to 20 and change all bets to x/20 format. The AH and over/under bets till the 98th one will be recounted as 10/20.
If you find the procedure unfair in a way, just let me know.
Good luck Lukasz, I look forward to seeing the results of this. :)
Fulham-0,25- Southampton 2 @1,95(1,87) Pointbet LOST
Charlton+0,75- Chelsea 1 @1,9(1,66) Landbrokers WON
Birmingham-0,25 - ManC 2 @1,92(1,67) odds4you LOST
Leeds0- Villa0 1 @1,95(1,73) Internet 1x2 VOID
Liverpool-1- Bolton 2 @1,8(1,44) odds4you LOST
ManU-1,5- Everton 2@2,06(1,77) Pinnacle WON
total: -0,98
On first glance and taking form etc. into account, I would agree with all the selections except for Man U. I think they'll cover the handicap fairly easily.
Thanks for your interest and wishes, CG. I'm sure you're right about ManU but that's the prediction the system turned out.
As I said, I don't want to interfere in the predictions, although you are always welome to comment on them. :D
Good luck man!
I keep fingers crossed
Thanks for your support, zbrochu. Do not expect to much, though.
Newcastle Blackburn -0,75 2 @1,95 Landbrokers WON (1,83)
ManC Liverpool 0,25 1 @1,92 Pinnacle (1,66) 1/2WON
M'boro Man U 0,75 1 @2 Pointbet (1,76)1/2LOST
Southampton Arsenal 0,75 1 @1,9 Landbrokers (1,41) 1/2LOST
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Everton Birmingham -0,5 2 @1,85 Landbrokers (1,83)
and
Aston Villa Fulham -0,25 1 @2,05 Bet365(2,03)
also qualify but I'm not really tempted by their value so I do not include them in the system.
Edit: I fixed a bug in the system which slightly influenced the selections.
TOTAL=0,41
Well, the more I look at these picks and the more info I read, the more disastrous they seem. It may take something special for me not to get heavily beaten :?
<TABLE BORDER=1><TR> <TD>Home team</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>AH</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>Bet</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>Odds</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>Bookmaker</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>Result</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Malaga</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>-0,5</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>2</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>2,08</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>Pinnacle</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>won</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Espanyol</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>0</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>1</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>1,97</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>Pinnacle</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>won</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Bilbao</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>-0,5</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>2</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>2,04</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>Pinnacle</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>won</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Valladolid</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>-0,25</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>1</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>2,05</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>Pointbet</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>1/2lost</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Bologna</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>-1</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>2</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>1,9</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>Pinnacle</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>void</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Modena</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>-0,5</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>2</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>1,88</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>Pinnacle</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>won</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Reggina</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>0,5</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>1</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>1,94</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>Pinnacle</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>won</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Roma</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>-0,25</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>1</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>2,03</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>Pointbet</TD> <TD></TD> <TD>lost</TD></TR></TABLE>
TOTAL=+3,41
Special Thanks to Lv for being my tablemaker teacher :D
Exams=no selections in the forthcoming weeks :cry:
ManC -0,25 2 @ 2.15 Pinnacle 1/2 won
Southampton -0,75 2 @ 2.175 Pointbet 1/2 lost
Chelsea -1,5 2 @ 1.96 Pinnacle won
Newcastle -0,75 2 @ 2.15 Pointbet lost
Barcelona -0,75 2 @ 2.14 Pinnacle won
Betis 0,5 1 2.25 Pointbet void
I'm half way done with my exeminating session :)
Result: +1,175
Betis is voided. I received the following message from Pointbet:
Dear Sir We are sorry that we have to cancel your bet slip because of the wrong money line. its should be 2.025 not 2.25 Regards Duncan Lim
No comments.
I'm having my last exam on Friday and, if everything goes fine, I will have 3 weeks-long winter break :P
I've noticed my selections are usually against the general market behaviour so I would like to wait till the very last moment with publishing them (because of the favourable movement in the lines).
hope everything goes perfect with your exam !!!
cya in the winter break ...
JK
Yes good luck with your exams! And Juankaan, you have apparently shaved and had a facelift... :lol: :lol: :lol:
Thanks juankaan and oopee for your suport. I did well indeed :D In fact I did too well and missed some nice betting opportiunities healing a hangover for the whole Saturday :oops:
Well, we'll have to make up for this.
Valencia(-1) 2 @ 1.91 Pointbet won
Malaga(-0,25) 2 @ 2.15 Poinbet won
Parma(-0,5) 1 @ 2.125 Pointbet lost
TOTAL=+1,06
Boavista(-0,75) 2 @1.89 Pointbet looked promising but it went down to 1.83 so this one is missed :cry: I won't take it unless the line creeps back.
Congratulations Lukasz!
Your results are very impressed so far 8O .
Keep up the good work.
Toni.
I'm very happy for your interest, Toni.
Although, 26 picks is a totally useless set of data to proof a system, it's always nice to start in green :) Let's wait till at least 226 before making any judgements. I'm still very sceptical.
Lyon(-0,75) 2 @ 2.05 Pointbet lost
ManU (-1,5) 2 @ 2 Bet365 won
Dortmund 1 @ 2,1 Expekt lost
Villareal (-1) 2 @ 1,84 Pinnacle won
NAC <2,75 @ 1.93 Pointbet void
NEC <2,75 @ 2.075 Pointbet 1/2 lost
Heerenveen >3 @ 2.175 Pointbet void
Sociedad >2,5 @1.95 Pinnacle lost
Brescia <2,5 @ 1.98 Pinnacle won
Udinese <2,5 @ 1,855 Pinnacle won
Mallorca >2,5 @ 2,05 Pointbet won
Charlton<2,5 @ 2 Pointbet lost
Leeds>2,25 @ 1,95 Pointbet won
Arsenal>2,75 @ 2,05 Pointbet 1/2won
Total(together with the AH bets in the previous post): +1,705
Betting on number of goals also looks promising so I will include it in the system's proofing even though it was just breaking even in the backtesting. I'm especially encouraged by the stability of this market as I don't find the desperate hunt for the best prices entertaining.
Chelsea >2,5 @2 Pointbet lost
M'boro, >2,5 @2,1 Pointbet lost
Roma >2,5 @2,1 Pointbet won
Bordeaux <2,25 @1,83 Pointbet 1/2 won
Nice <2,25 @1,8 Pointbet lost
Rennes <2,25 @2,05 Pointbet 1/2 won
Roosendaal <2,5@ 2,025 Pointbet lost
Santander >2,25 @1,93 Pointbet won
Valencia >2,5 @2,075 Pinnacle won
Nacional <2,75 @1,94 Pinnacle lost
TOTAL: -0,96
Rome(0:0) 1 @1,85 Bet365 won
Bolton(+0,25) 1@ 2 Pinnacle 1/2 won
Udinese(-0,5) 1@ 2,01 Pinnacle lost
Roosendaal(-0,5) 2@ 1,975 Pointbet won
Maritimo(-0,75) 2 @1,97 Pinnacle lost
TOTAL= +0,325
Valencia was of course "over" and the bet was won. Sorry for the mistake.
Liverpool >2,5 @1,95 Pointbet won
Waalwijk >2,5 @1,95 Pointbet lost
Total: -0,05
Weekend selections:
Hannover(0:0) 1 @2,15 Pointbet void
Nantes(-0,5) 2 @2,075 Pointbet lost
Lens(-0,75) 2 1,815 Pointbet 1/2lost
Stuttgart(-1) 2 2,1 Pinnacle won
Valladolid(0:0) 1 1,83 Pointbet lost
Ajaccio(-0,5) 2 1,813 Pinnacle won
Sporting(-1,75) 2 1,94 Pinnacle won
Leira(-0,25) 2 2,05 Pointbet won
Benfica(0:0) 1 2 Pinnacle void
Academica(+0,5) 1 1,82 Pointbet won
Total: 2,22
Stuttgart <2,75 @1,91 Pointbet won
Hannover >2,75 @2,025 Pointbet won
Nantes <2,25 @1,8 Pointbet lost
Villareal >2,5 @2 Pointbet won
Sociedad>2,5 @1,95 Pinnacle lost
Sporting <3 1,88 Pinnacle won
Academica <2,5 1,8 Pointbet won
Braga <2,5 2 Pointbet won
Total: 3,62
Looks as though there were either some serious injuries in the Portugese League at the moment or bookies messed up something heavily in their prices.
Another opion is that my calculations suck :wink:
Sporting seems to be the most overestimated team this round. (If I know my luck they will win with 4 or 5 goals advantage :lol: )
Feeling a bit jaded, I decided to take some time off.
I will work on the system and try to introduce slight improvements.
Good luck to you in the meantime.
Fulham >2.5 @2.2 Pointbet lost
Stuttgart <2,5 @ 2.1 Pontbet won
Espanyol>2.5 @2.03 Pinnacle (Pointbet is out with 2.1 :!: )lost
Mallorca>2.5 @ 2.13 Pinnaclewon
Celta>2.5 @ 2.125 Pointbetlost
Leverkusen>2.5 @ 1.815 Pointbetwon
Roosendaal<2.5 @ 2.05 Pointbetwon
PSV>2.75 @2 Pointbetlost
Belenenses>2.5 @2.02 Pinnaclelost
Porto<2.5 @1.98 Pinnaclewon
total: 0.08
Sociedad(-0.25) 1 @2.05 Pinnacle won
Juventus(0:0) 1 @1.93 Pointbet lost
Lens(-0.75) 2 @1.91 Pointbet won
PSV(-0.75) 1 @2.125 Pointbet lost
Anderlecht(-2) 2 @1.8 Pointbet won
St. Truiden(0:0) @2.025 Pointbet void
Westerlo(+0.25) @2.05 Pointbetlost
total: -0,24
Stuttgart <2,5 @ 2.1 Pontbet
The Pointbet's mistake has made the market move the other way round.
Those of you who took over @2.1 may now consider backing <2.5 @ 2.03 Pinnacle (with 103,4% of your stake on <2,5) to ensure 6,6% free money.
(I do not include the bet in the system)
Athletic>2,5@1.975 Pointbet 10/20 won +0,975
Valencia>2.5@2 Pointbet 10/20 won +1
Santander>2.5@2.05 Pinnacle 10/20 won +1,05
Sevilla >2.25@2 Pointbet 10/20 lost -1
Boavista<2.25 @1.95 Pointbet 1/2won 0,5*0,95=0,475
Maritimo<2,25 @2 Pointbet 1/2won 0,5
M'boro(-0,25)2@ 2.075Pointbet10/20 lost -1
Santander(-0,25)1 @2 Pointbet10/20 1/2lost -0,5
Lyon(-0,75) 1 @2.1 Bet365 10/20 1/2won 0,55
Rennes 1 @ 2.7 Nordic 6/20 won 0,6*2,7-0,6=1,02
Mouscron 2@5.25 Unibet (6@BFR) 3/20 lost -0,3
Total: +2.47
Total balance of picks from last post is +26.75 . Probably you did somewhere a mistake or I misunderstood sth.
BTW: Amazing job 8O
I can't find it :oops:
BTW: Amazing job
The best thing is that I've made a mistake by putting Sevilla instead of Osasuna in the picks :lol: . So in fact the week was way better than it looks on the paper :D
Bologna 1 @3.1 Unibet (4,5/20) 0,95 won
Betis 1 @3.35 Centrebet 4/20 void
Reginna 1 @3.75 Easybets 4/20 lost
Roma(-1.25)1 @1.93 Pinnacle 10/20 lost
Bochum(-0.25) 1 @2.15 Pointbet 10/20 lost
Hannover 1 @3 Nordic 4,5/20 lost
Leverkusen (-0.75) 1 @1.98 Premierbet won
Strasbourg 2 @4,05 Unibet 3/20 won
Villareal(-0.25) 1 @2.175 Pointbet 10/20 1/2 lost
Hamburg 2 @4.25 Unibet 3/20 lost
Stuttgart 1 @2.52 GB 6,5/20 lost
Marseille 2 @4.75 Pinnacle 2,5/20 lost
Guimares 2 @3.5Interwetten 4/20 lost
Groningen(0:0) 1 @1.83 Pointbet won
Academica<2.25 @1.87 Pointbet 10/20 1/2won
Roma>2.5 @1.95 Pinnacle 10/20 won
Strasbourg >2.25 @1.93 Pointbet 10/20 won
Real Madryt >2.5 @1.85 Pointbet 10/20 won
Lens <2.25 @1.83 Pointbet 10/20 won
Leverkusen>2.75 @1.94 Pinnacle 10/20 won
AZ Alkmaar >2.5 @1.85 Pointbet 10/20 lost
Feyenoord >2.75 @1.975 Pointbet 10/20 1/2won
Total (together with the previous post): +3,23
Fulham 2@ 3.55 Expekt/BFR 4/20lost
M'boro 2@ 4.35 Expekt 3/20 lost
Newcastle 2@ 7 Expekt 1,5/20 lost
Aston Villa 2@ 4.25 Expekt 3/20 lost
Liverpool 2@ 7.5 Expekt 1,5/20 lost
Gladbach (0:0)1 @ 2.2 Pointbet 8/20 void
TSV 1860 2@ 3.85 CentreB 3.5/20 won
Dortmund 2@ 4.5 GameB 3/20 lost
Bologna 2@ 5 CentreB 2.5/20 lost
Inter 1 @ 2.65 NordicB 6/20won
La Coruna (-1.25) 2 @2.23 Pinnacle 10/20 cancelled (read below)
Atletico 2 @6 BaW 2/20 lost
Barcelona 2 @8 Expekt, BaW 1.5/20
Modena<2.5 @1.95 Pointbet 10/20 won
Sevilla >2.25 @1.95Pinnacle 10/20 lost
Athletic Bilbao >2.5 @1.95 Pinnacle 10/20 lost
Montpellier 1@ 2.92 BFR 5/20won
PSG<2.25 @1.83 Pinnacle 10/20 lost
Inter>2.5 @2.125 Pontbet 9/20 won
Braga 1 @3.4 Premierbet 4/20 lost
Roda >2.5 @1.87 Pointbet 11.5/20 lost
NAC 1 @3.45 Unibet 4/20 lost
La Coruna (-1.25) 2 @2.23 Pinnacle 10/20
I am afraid I must've made a mistake. I dont't think AH was set to (-1.25) so the bet is cancelled. I take La Coruna 2@ 6.5 Ladbrokers 2/20 instead.
Sorry for the mess.
Total (with 3 previous posts): -2,45
Real Madrid 2@ 10.5 GB 1/20
Arsenal(-0,5) 1 @2.08 Premierbet 8/20
Birmingham 1 @ 5 Unibet 2/20
Chelsea 2 @ 8.5 Expekt 1/20
Nice (0:0) 1 @2.15 Pointbet 9/20
You must have noticed I had dropped my decission to bet mostly on Asian Handicap. It's because a better value in three way bets isn't as rare as I had expected.
At the same time I adopted a fixed profit strategy (since I find it superior to the flat stake ; it wouldn't make such a difference earlier since the AH odds come in very narrow range).
Furthermore, it became obvious to me that the previous procedure of keeping records (i.e. just counting the nr of bets and the profit) is not apropriate anymore. Now I need to recount the records:
Since adopting the new strategy, I've been "asking" each bet to win 10 units. If I set the maximum stake to 10 and write each stake in x/10 format, I'll get stakes exceeding the maximum (on the odds below 2).
That's why I decide to set the maximum to 20 and change all bets to x/20 format. The AH and over/under bets till the 98th one will be recounted as 10/20.
If you find the procedure unfair in a way, just let me know.
Wolfsburg @4.6 BFR 3/20
Bastia @6.25 BaW 2/20
Maritimo @13 BFR 1/20
Louvierse @4.4 BFR 3/20
Beveren @3.85 Pinnacle/BaW 3.5/20
Westerlo @ 4.5 BaW 3/20
It's too late to place bets but still no goals so just to keep record:
Southampton @4.1 BFR 3/20
Man City @3.4 Expekt 4/20
Charlton @8.25 Pinnacle 1.5/20
Lukasz,
Are you sure that when you have an edge on asian handicap you have the SAME edge betting that side outright ?
Lukasz,
Are you sure that when you have an edge on asian handicap you have the SAME edge betting that side outright ?
Hi Sheva
I definitely don't. I never said I do (or did I?).
In fact, the method I use, usually points to a far better edge in 1X2 betting. I guess the reason for that is that, according to my predictions, most of the bookies overround lies on the draw option, which is eliminated in handicaps.
Regards
Lukasz
Kaiserslautern<2.5 @2.09 Pinnacle 9/20
Marseille<2.5 @1.75 Expekt 13/20
Boavista<2.25 @2.05 Pointbet 10/20
Empoli<2.25 @2.08 Pinnacle 9/20
Pacos Ferreira <2.25 @ 1.91 Pointbet 11/20
Maritimo<2.25 @2.025 Pointbet 10/20
Antwerpen<2.5 @1.98 10/20 GB
Groningen<2.5 @2 10/20 GB
Beira Mar <2.5 @1.9 GB 11/20
Braga<2.5 @1.95 GB 10/20
Osasuna<2.5 @1.85 Easybets 12/20
Valencia<2.5 @2.05 Pinnacle 10/20
Lukasz,
sheva wrote:
Lukasz,
Are you sure that when you have an edge on asian handicap you have the SAME edge betting that side outright ?
Hi Sheva
I definitely don't. I never said I do (or did I?).
The reason I'm asking it's because when betting on AH you had your unit sized accordingly to your edge (I assume so ?), so it was 10/20. Now I see your resize your units having 10/20 2.00 as the point of reference. So what you're essentially doing is to assume the same edge in your 1X2 bets. Am I missing something ?
Hi Sheva
Interesting point.
In fact, I have not been taking edge on each single bet into consideration when deciding on the stake.
when betting on AH you had your unit sized accordingly to your edge (I assume so ?), so it was 10/20.
I am not sure if I understand. The reason for me using 10/20 was, as stated above, to allow more space for the bets @ odds lower than 2.
The edge on each bet (handicaps and straight alike) is obviously different, but again, I treat all of them equally not assigning any special stake to those with a (potential) better value.
BTW, thank you for the interest.
Regards
Lukasz
1860 <2.5 @2.10 Pointbet 9/20
Don't have much time these days so I've just counted the results from 2 previous weekends. We had a few unlucky losers with goals for over in dying minutes of the games (Boavista, 1860; and half stakes lost in Maritimo).
Despite the awful result, I'm not desperate at all :D To tell the truth, I am happy the bad run finally came as it made me rethink some concepts and search for possible improvements. For now I can just say I've found another bug in my method and currently I'm am working on its annihilation :twisted:
Total from 2 previous weekends: -52.5 from 27 games.
Now, as the method has been improved (spent whole Thursday on that :lol: ), I'm eagerly looking forward to the next few weeks to show some healthy results.
Unfortunatelly, the period is quite unfortunate, as the season is drawing to its end and the motivational factor plays more and more important role.
Furthermore, the method is essentially different now and I see no reason to go on with it in this topic.
So for now, thanks to those of you who followed "Lukasz's".
Good Luck.
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