View Full Version : Conference 14th of October
14 Oct 15:00 Aldershot v Kidderminster 1.72 3.40 4.20
14 Oct 15:00 Burton Albion v Gravesend 1.90 3.25 3.50
14 Oct 15:00 Cambridge Utd v Crawley Town 2.10 3.25 3.00
14 Oct 15:00 Grays Athletic v Forest Green 1.57 3.60 5.00
14 Oct 15:00 Halifax v Tamworth 1.80 3.25 4.00
14 Oct 15:00 Morecambe v Exeter 2.25 3.25 2.75
14 Oct 15:00 Northwich v Rushden & D'monds 2.25 3.25 2.75
14 Oct 15:00 Oxford Utd v Altrincham 1.28 4.50 9.00
14 Oct 15:00 St Albans v York 2.80 3.25 2.20
14 Oct 15:00 Stafford Rangers v Woking 2.50 3.20 2.50
14 Oct 15:00 Stevenage v Dag & Red 2.50 3.20 2.50
14 Oct 15:00 Weymouth v Southport 1.50 3.50 6.00
Odds from Bet365
My thoughts:
As it said recently on the 'shots forum "Will the real Aldershot please stand up". Talented squad, terrible perfomances and a few out last game as I recall.
The same can almost be said about Kidderminster but they've dabbled in the loan market and the boy they've signed from Plymouth scored and set the goal up last week. A lay of Aldershot might be the way to go in that one or Kidderminster on the exchanges could give you a run for your money.
Cambridge have improved considerably under new management and the 2.1 against Crawley would be value if Crawley didn't scupper me at every turn. I will look into that game more thoroughly as I add the match-reports to NLG later...
Grays against FGR. Well, if Grays don't win this one they may as well forget about the play-off this season. FGR's record away is poor. They haven't won away for about a year. FGR will have a confidence boost after surprisingly beating Burton. 1.62 is too short on the home here as Grays are jittery at home (and not so good away this time round). If the price went to the environs of 1.8 I'd be interested.
Halifax is an interesting one. 1.82 for them I see. Traditionally strong at home having lost just once but have 4 draws. Tamworth unbeaten in 3 and coming off the back of tonking Grays 4-2. Another I'd be interested in at a longer price at first glance.
Morecambe have lost an amazing 5 times this season much to the despair of their expectant fans. Exeter unbeaten in 7. Another hard game to call and IMO priced up correctly.
The bookies aren't giving anything away on Oxford are they? And why should they? They should beat Altrincham, but the same could have been said about the Southport game. One for "Combo" backers I suspect...
St Albans have lost 9 games from 15 as their small squad has been decimated by injuries (though I read this week they've taken a Bristol City youth striker on loan). York surprisingly lost at home to Cambridge. I'm going to conduct a post-mortem into that game as there could well be a case for the 2.25. I say this because I was impressed with the recent away win at Woking where they played very well by all accounts.
Another game I'll be interested in reading about is how did Stafford get one of the results of the season and beat Gravesend away? In-form Woking are the visitors here and the price looks big for them. I think this game has a great chance of being over 2.5 goals as the last 4 from 6 of Staffords have finished over and Woking tend to concede some soft goals.
Stevenage are a team on the rise and that 2.5 looks big. However, Dagenham have started the season excellently and are 6/1/1 from their last 8 matches. I listened to the live commentary of Boro's game mid-week and they only got their act together in the 2nd half. A difficult game to call this one and maybe I'll look to the exchanges to see if a nice premimum exist for the home side.
Weymouth one home league defeat in 18 months. They're coming off a good away victory at Crawley and Southport are coming off an ill-disciplined second half to Stevenage. You have to fancy the homes here at short odds.
If you're interested in reading all match reports and stats go here:
http://www.nonleaguegambler.com/league.php?competition=2
www.confguide.com is also good for stats and oreviews (but doesn't have the match reports ;))
Just let me know if you're going to be on anything as I might just copy you!
So, this weekend I am taking:
Oxford / Weymouth double @ approx 2.1
I can also recommend the +2.5 goals in the Stafford and St Albans game.
AMP
Further to the above summary here's some more on the bet I highlighted...
Oxford / Weymouth Double @ 2.02 (Skybet)
Nationwide Conference, Staurday
Match-ups:
http://www.nonleaguegambler.com/matc...?FixtureID=660
http://www.nonleaguegambler.com/matc...?FixtureID=654
I made the comment that if I "had" to bet on the Conference this week then I'd take this bet on.
Well, I then went away and read forums and match-reports and my initial feeling has been strengthened.
Starting with the Oxford v Alty game. Alty had 6 first teamers out on Tuesday. They started the game with a defender up front. Their captain came back from injury and was a sub, came on and duly tweaked his hamstring again.
Here's a fan's view:
"We were knackered on Tuesday and I would expect us to be knackered on Saturday (although at least the last two games have been at home so we've not had the travelling overhead). And in fact I'd almost prefer us to write Saturday off, treat it as a day out - a reward for still being in the conference, to not rush injured players back, and to concentrate on being strong against Southport on the 21st."
What can you say about Oxford's form? Away at Kiddie was the only time they've failed to score this season. Alty no wins in 4 games and didn''t score in 3 of those games. Looks almost too good, but then the odds of around 1.3 reflect this.
Moving on to Southport. Manager Paul Cook is living on borrowed time with fans completeltly at a loss with his tatics. I must admit I find his comments that he got them right after a player was sent off on Tuesday bizarre - they lost 2-1 to Stevenage! I'd hate to see what happens when they get them wrong!
In Weymouth they face a mammoth task against a team with 1 home loss in 18 months. 7 games without a win they go to Weymouth with "a Skeleton Squad"
"Paul Cook due to injuries, suspensions and departures has a skeleton squad travelling south tomorrow. Defender Kevin Lee has the FA Cup fourth qualifying round as his target. Striker Dino Maamria is out with a hamstring problem again. Both defender Paul Martin and Alex Smith are ruled out. Influential skipper Mark Boyd was substituted on Tuesday night and is receiving treatment. Also under treatment is Mark Jackson. While defender Stephen Rowland absent on Tuesday night is still under treatment for a groin strain.Right back Chris Lane is suspended for one match following his red card on Tuesday night"
He has brought a right back in on loan from Accrington and apparently is looking for more "experienced" loan signings before tomorrow.
For the hosts it's good to see that winger Lee Elam is back to his best form as a criticism levelled at the 'muff is they find it difficult to break teams down and surely Southport will batten down the hatches on Saturday. Weymouth have won quite a few games by just the single goal this season but the signs are good when an Elam inspired performance led to a 3-0 win at Crawley.
I hope you agree with me that both of these games look excellent prospects. I'd be interested in taking them on for singles but I feel the prices are just right so a 3 point double is the way I'm going to play it.
AMP
anotha mug
13-10-06, 14:07
hey amp great reviews, good stuff and thanks for the links. I've gone for cambridge I just think there a side on the up since replacing their manager and at those odds can't resist a bite.
Tell you a game that interests me from a football point of view is st albans vs york as these are two teams I've seen play some great stuff and then again such woeful stuff.
Thanks.
I was thinking about this game as apparently York played well despite defeat against a "one dimensional" Cambridge. I'm sure Cambridge don't care what you call 'em as long as they can have the 3 points.
I'm hit by a curse. Every time I back against Crawley they win. Every time I don't bet on them they loose. So I won't be betting on them this week and I hope it works out for you at a very nice price there.
I wonder if that St Albans / York game will have a lot of goals? St Albans have done better than I expected following promotion and many opposing team managers and chairman (Exeter and Dagenham - who they gave a real fright midweek) have said lots of nice things about the way they play.
I hope they don't go down and they've got a good chance of still being here for next season.
GL with your bets anotha mug!
AMP
PompeyPunt
13-10-06, 20:53
Grays v Forest Green
Grays have really been poor lately, which was quite suprising since they had such a great start to thier conference season. It was 3 wins from 3, but then it's been downhill from there. They did have some tough games in that period, but still, they really should of got better results, and not be playing catch up.
They face a side in Forest Green who are really struggling big time. They were hammered by Oxford in their last match 5-1, and I really do doubt that they have the ability to survive in this league, and will be going down this season.
Grays manager Frank Gray is boosted by the return of Jamie Slabber to the first team squad, and they are likely to also start with Chris Plummer who has just joined on loan from league 2 side Peterborough.
I really fancy Grays who are down on form at the moment to take all 3 points against significantly weaker opposition here at the recreation ground. Good chance of a home win by a couple of goals.
Picks
Grays -1 (2.01) @ Pinnacle Sports 4/10
Grays v Forest Green
They face a side in Forest Green who are really struggling big time. They were hammered by Oxford in their last match 5-1, and I really do doubt that they have the ability to survive in this league, and will be going down this season.
errrrrm, they beat an in-form Burton 1-0 at home midweek Pompey.
http://www.nonleaguegambler.com/league.php?competition=2#Results
i may be on Stevenage,i took them last round when they played against Southport,they turn the game in 2-nd half,but I suppose that game wasn't most important that night(Hyde :lol: )..2.50 looks big ,btw Stevenage unbeaten in 7 games,4 last games was over 2.5,D&R coming from two impressive wins 4:2 and 5:0 against weaker opponents St.Albans&Nortwich,mayber over is better here :roll:
after backing woking against aldershot on monday, i was very tempted to take them again, against stafford rangers. still thinking about it, but something is holding me back. there is value there, though IMO. Level ball Asian at about evens is definite value.
Weymouth looks really promising AMP. Cant see Southport taking smtg here. They are basicly struggling to form a squad for this one and looking at Weymouth home form this term...hmmm. 6 1 0 10 4 . Quite impressive I say.
Few words on the Southport missing players:
- defender Lee - 9 games so far this season.
- striker Maamria - 10 games so far and 4 goals.
- defenfer Martin - 6 starts and 1 as sub
- defender Smith - quite important. 10 league starts and 1 goal
- skipper Boyd is also probably missing. huge loss if so with his 13 starts + 1 as a sub and 3 goals scored.
- Rowland and Jackson are also doubtful with the first especially being quite important player for them.
- the suspended RB Lane is also a basic figure with his 13 starts + 1 as a sub.
Sorry, but cant see Southport taking anything today.
Weymouth 8/10 @ 1.55 globet
i wanna go for Yorkk..any opinions about that game?
Excellent analysis ZZAX, glad you agree with me.
BTW check your PM ;)
York should win as St Albans have got a lot of injuries at present. I think the odds are dropping for this one. I would say that 2.2 is a good bet, as is the "overs" in that particular game.
Weymouth won as we expected, Oxford dropped the points 4 min from FT :?
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