joecambo
01-09-06, 16:41
TITLE RACE
Take Juventus out of the race and the other two from last season remain. Roma can make an appearance and deserves a small percentage for the title, but the bigger part is for the clubs from Milan.
Inter is the big favourite. They have bought everyone that Milan was interested in, mainly to disrupt their opponent side. Ibrahimovic would have completed Milan offence nicely, yet here you have him playing for Inter, which could have done without him. Inter has two or more players for every role. They even have national team starters on the bench, and even someone on the stands who cannot be on the bench (take Cruz or Recoba, for example). But, they still have Mancini as coach, and this is awful. To win the league, Inter has to be better by twenty points, as Mancini is sure to cost them at least nineteen.
Also, they still have Adriano, and will feel compelled to play him, while it’s clear to everyone that Adriano has not been a player since two years ago.
Milan seems better in their first eleven, but is way thinner, and there are doubts about its durability if they try to go for both their targets (League and Champions League).
Oliveira has all the traits of the player that cannot play in Serie A, and I will place every possible bet against him. Inzaghi and Gilardino – whom I have serious doubts about the possibility of coexisting – will have to carry the load by themselves, as other forward Borriello is nowhere near this class. Defence is also thin, but Bonera although not a monster can play either in the middle or the side, and Simic is being trained to do both as well, so they now have a very versatile group that will field Nesta and Kaladze as starters in the middle, but can have subs in Costacurta, Simic, Maldini and Bonera.
Roma is good enough, but has to solve a lot of mysteries before they can be declared a contender. Yes, on any given day they can beat everyone, but in the long run the fact that there are some players that cannot rest (Totti and Mancini) will take its toll.
All the other parts of the team are the same of last season: Pizarro adds some more order to the team, but will cost one of their midfielders, as last season Roma was used to attacking with its two wingers, plus the two midfielders, while now they only have De Rossi to supplement Mancini and Taddei.
Besides, Supercup has shown that Inter is too strong for Roma, as they were hampered in the worst possible way by crazy coaching decisions; yet they were able to score four in fifty minutes and win.
All the rest of the team have no chances to reach the title. Fiorentina is a good enough team, but will be content with avoiding relegation with the handicap they now have. Palermo is the other champions League place contender and will be more than happy to get fourth place taking advantage of Fiorentina handicap.
Percentages: Inter 55% Milan 34% Roma 10% Rest 1%
As a note, remember that the season after the World Cup is usually a bit crazier, and even more so after Italy wins it.
UEFA CUP
Considering Roma as a part of the League title battle, the best team of the rest despite the heavy penalization is Fiorentina. They have a brand new great midfield and a proper forward to complement Toni. Mutu showed in Parma that he can score a lot when coupled with a strong first forward, and I expect a lot from him. Fiorentina is a bit thin in reserves, especially for defence, but is otherwise a very strong team and would have been a strong contender for the title.
Palermo follows suit with a completely renovated team. They sold almost every bench player and acquired starters. The result is that they now have a potentially great first team but a very doubtful roster. If everything goes their way and Guidolin manages to find a way to play Caracciolo, Di Michele and Amauri together, Palermo can hope for fourth place.
Siena looks a serious candidate for UEFA Cup placement this season. They should have no problems with relegation, and despite all the new players, they have a lot of quality especially in midfield. Besides, they are one of the few teams with a good couple of forwards in Bogdani and Chiesa.
Torino bought a lot of players and its team is strong enough to achieve safety without problems. The problems come when you think about the possibility of going one step further. Forwards don’t look good enough, and the strong impression is that Torino will have the same problem they had most of last season, which is scoring goals against good defences.
Chievo sold Amauri, but replacements are good, and Chievo has never depended on one man only. The team is all important, and the structure is all there. Nothing spectacular as usual, but I think that the elimination from Champions League did them a world of good – they would have needed to buy a lot and change their approach to the game – and that Chievo will win some quality games here and there and end as usual seventh or eighth.
Sampdoria is here because there is no way they will fight for relegation. Still, they have too little quality to be fighting with the likes of Palermo and Fiorentina. Very little in offence, where Flachi is still the only key to success. A makeshift team of players that has to quail and will take some time to do that. My impression is that if Sampdoria gets some good results early on, they can go on to good results, if not they will have an hard season of fans booing the team.
Cagliari is a question mark from this standpoint. While I don’t think they will fight for relegation, they can risk entering the battle if the new coach does not quail (especially with the owner Cellino) and if Cagliari doesn’t take well the change from the “me” approach to the teamwork ethics of Giampaolo. This team can either get seventh position and a place in UEFA to fourteenth.
RELEGATION BATTLE
Atalanta is the best of the others: not yet good enough to fight for Europe, but not weak enough to be dragged into relegation fight. The strength of its forwards will be enough to carry them, if all the rest fails. No other team apart from the first three or four has anything resembling Zampagna, Vieri, Ventola, Bombardini, Ferreira Pinto.
Lazio is here because they won’t get UEFA Cup, mainly because of handicap, but they have a decent team, with a great midfield and finally a forward to complement Rocchi. The defence is still suspect and has no reserve to speak of, so the ambitions of this team for this season will be restricted to tenth position without too much worry about relegation.
Udinese has some question marks tied to both its coach, who has been unable to replicate success for too long, and about the slew of South American unknown players who have been brought in hoping to find the next Pizarro. Udinese however is not a society of fools, and has decided not to cash in to Felipe and Muntari, for whom Juventus would have paid handsomely.
Livorno could very well enter the relegation battle, depending on their first eight games. After these games, five away and three at home against the kind of Fiorentina and Milan we will know whether Livorno can hope for a tranquil season (therefore if they can start selling games as usual coming February) or if they will have to fight to avoid relegation. On paper they have a more than decent team, capable of getting more than safety. But, the start of the season is important as I said, and Livorno has to stay calm although they will get little in the beginning.
Parma is another team that could achieve a tranquil safety, but has to overcome changing most of the team to make some cash. When they will get to know each other they can win those three or four games to stay in fourteenth place and avoid relegation. Remember that last season Parma was undoubtedly the luckiest team in Serie A, and they wouldn’t have been safe without winning some games they had no points in winning.
Ascoli has a few chances to survive. Mainly, that there are three teams behind them in the end. This is not silly as it may sound. They have a poor team, and would normally be relegated without hope, but this time it’s not impossible to find three teams even worse off. Messina, Reggina and Catania look worse, and Empoli seems on the same level. Ascoli has to forget last season’s good success and has to play every game like a battle. In this way they achieved a seemingly impossible safety last season.
Empoli sold Tavano not replacing him. They now have no solution for the long ball approach that has always been Empoli trademark. Last season they avoided relegation by start6ing well and then playing a decent end of the season, sparkled from a draw against Fiorentina. Now they will need more of the same just to stay fourth to last.
Catania has changed little from last season, and hopes that Spinesi will score in Serie A like he did in Serie B. Even if he does, they sold De Zerbi, who was very important, and replaced hime with a player coming from an ugly season. Then they did not buy anyone to replace Spinesi, so they will have big problems when he will be suspended or injured. Catania is not an easy field to play in, but the team is not on par with the rest of serie A and will find it difficult to avoid relegation.
Messina is the same team that was relegated last season, minus five starters. Their offence is basically non-existent. Defence is pathetic, and midfield is a joke for Serie A and Serie B alike. Messina has grabbed as much money they could from players and TV rights and is headed for another unceremoniously descent into Serie B.
Reggina is not a Serie A team. They have too many points to overcome and they won’t make it ever. They know it and started behaving accordingly. They sold everyone, did not renew heavy contracts, started planning next season. Midfield is much lighter than least season. The only man who was creating something, Cozza, is gone to Siena. Offence was a joke and still is. Even skipper De Rosa was sold. No hope for Reggina, which is the only already relegated team.
Take Juventus out of the race and the other two from last season remain. Roma can make an appearance and deserves a small percentage for the title, but the bigger part is for the clubs from Milan.
Inter is the big favourite. They have bought everyone that Milan was interested in, mainly to disrupt their opponent side. Ibrahimovic would have completed Milan offence nicely, yet here you have him playing for Inter, which could have done without him. Inter has two or more players for every role. They even have national team starters on the bench, and even someone on the stands who cannot be on the bench (take Cruz or Recoba, for example). But, they still have Mancini as coach, and this is awful. To win the league, Inter has to be better by twenty points, as Mancini is sure to cost them at least nineteen.
Also, they still have Adriano, and will feel compelled to play him, while it’s clear to everyone that Adriano has not been a player since two years ago.
Milan seems better in their first eleven, but is way thinner, and there are doubts about its durability if they try to go for both their targets (League and Champions League).
Oliveira has all the traits of the player that cannot play in Serie A, and I will place every possible bet against him. Inzaghi and Gilardino – whom I have serious doubts about the possibility of coexisting – will have to carry the load by themselves, as other forward Borriello is nowhere near this class. Defence is also thin, but Bonera although not a monster can play either in the middle or the side, and Simic is being trained to do both as well, so they now have a very versatile group that will field Nesta and Kaladze as starters in the middle, but can have subs in Costacurta, Simic, Maldini and Bonera.
Roma is good enough, but has to solve a lot of mysteries before they can be declared a contender. Yes, on any given day they can beat everyone, but in the long run the fact that there are some players that cannot rest (Totti and Mancini) will take its toll.
All the other parts of the team are the same of last season: Pizarro adds some more order to the team, but will cost one of their midfielders, as last season Roma was used to attacking with its two wingers, plus the two midfielders, while now they only have De Rossi to supplement Mancini and Taddei.
Besides, Supercup has shown that Inter is too strong for Roma, as they were hampered in the worst possible way by crazy coaching decisions; yet they were able to score four in fifty minutes and win.
All the rest of the team have no chances to reach the title. Fiorentina is a good enough team, but will be content with avoiding relegation with the handicap they now have. Palermo is the other champions League place contender and will be more than happy to get fourth place taking advantage of Fiorentina handicap.
Percentages: Inter 55% Milan 34% Roma 10% Rest 1%
As a note, remember that the season after the World Cup is usually a bit crazier, and even more so after Italy wins it.
UEFA CUP
Considering Roma as a part of the League title battle, the best team of the rest despite the heavy penalization is Fiorentina. They have a brand new great midfield and a proper forward to complement Toni. Mutu showed in Parma that he can score a lot when coupled with a strong first forward, and I expect a lot from him. Fiorentina is a bit thin in reserves, especially for defence, but is otherwise a very strong team and would have been a strong contender for the title.
Palermo follows suit with a completely renovated team. They sold almost every bench player and acquired starters. The result is that they now have a potentially great first team but a very doubtful roster. If everything goes their way and Guidolin manages to find a way to play Caracciolo, Di Michele and Amauri together, Palermo can hope for fourth place.
Siena looks a serious candidate for UEFA Cup placement this season. They should have no problems with relegation, and despite all the new players, they have a lot of quality especially in midfield. Besides, they are one of the few teams with a good couple of forwards in Bogdani and Chiesa.
Torino bought a lot of players and its team is strong enough to achieve safety without problems. The problems come when you think about the possibility of going one step further. Forwards don’t look good enough, and the strong impression is that Torino will have the same problem they had most of last season, which is scoring goals against good defences.
Chievo sold Amauri, but replacements are good, and Chievo has never depended on one man only. The team is all important, and the structure is all there. Nothing spectacular as usual, but I think that the elimination from Champions League did them a world of good – they would have needed to buy a lot and change their approach to the game – and that Chievo will win some quality games here and there and end as usual seventh or eighth.
Sampdoria is here because there is no way they will fight for relegation. Still, they have too little quality to be fighting with the likes of Palermo and Fiorentina. Very little in offence, where Flachi is still the only key to success. A makeshift team of players that has to quail and will take some time to do that. My impression is that if Sampdoria gets some good results early on, they can go on to good results, if not they will have an hard season of fans booing the team.
Cagliari is a question mark from this standpoint. While I don’t think they will fight for relegation, they can risk entering the battle if the new coach does not quail (especially with the owner Cellino) and if Cagliari doesn’t take well the change from the “me” approach to the teamwork ethics of Giampaolo. This team can either get seventh position and a place in UEFA to fourteenth.
RELEGATION BATTLE
Atalanta is the best of the others: not yet good enough to fight for Europe, but not weak enough to be dragged into relegation fight. The strength of its forwards will be enough to carry them, if all the rest fails. No other team apart from the first three or four has anything resembling Zampagna, Vieri, Ventola, Bombardini, Ferreira Pinto.
Lazio is here because they won’t get UEFA Cup, mainly because of handicap, but they have a decent team, with a great midfield and finally a forward to complement Rocchi. The defence is still suspect and has no reserve to speak of, so the ambitions of this team for this season will be restricted to tenth position without too much worry about relegation.
Udinese has some question marks tied to both its coach, who has been unable to replicate success for too long, and about the slew of South American unknown players who have been brought in hoping to find the next Pizarro. Udinese however is not a society of fools, and has decided not to cash in to Felipe and Muntari, for whom Juventus would have paid handsomely.
Livorno could very well enter the relegation battle, depending on their first eight games. After these games, five away and three at home against the kind of Fiorentina and Milan we will know whether Livorno can hope for a tranquil season (therefore if they can start selling games as usual coming February) or if they will have to fight to avoid relegation. On paper they have a more than decent team, capable of getting more than safety. But, the start of the season is important as I said, and Livorno has to stay calm although they will get little in the beginning.
Parma is another team that could achieve a tranquil safety, but has to overcome changing most of the team to make some cash. When they will get to know each other they can win those three or four games to stay in fourteenth place and avoid relegation. Remember that last season Parma was undoubtedly the luckiest team in Serie A, and they wouldn’t have been safe without winning some games they had no points in winning.
Ascoli has a few chances to survive. Mainly, that there are three teams behind them in the end. This is not silly as it may sound. They have a poor team, and would normally be relegated without hope, but this time it’s not impossible to find three teams even worse off. Messina, Reggina and Catania look worse, and Empoli seems on the same level. Ascoli has to forget last season’s good success and has to play every game like a battle. In this way they achieved a seemingly impossible safety last season.
Empoli sold Tavano not replacing him. They now have no solution for the long ball approach that has always been Empoli trademark. Last season they avoided relegation by start6ing well and then playing a decent end of the season, sparkled from a draw against Fiorentina. Now they will need more of the same just to stay fourth to last.
Catania has changed little from last season, and hopes that Spinesi will score in Serie A like he did in Serie B. Even if he does, they sold De Zerbi, who was very important, and replaced hime with a player coming from an ugly season. Then they did not buy anyone to replace Spinesi, so they will have big problems when he will be suspended or injured. Catania is not an easy field to play in, but the team is not on par with the rest of serie A and will find it difficult to avoid relegation.
Messina is the same team that was relegated last season, minus five starters. Their offence is basically non-existent. Defence is pathetic, and midfield is a joke for Serie A and Serie B alike. Messina has grabbed as much money they could from players and TV rights and is headed for another unceremoniously descent into Serie B.
Reggina is not a Serie A team. They have too many points to overcome and they won’t make it ever. They know it and started behaving accordingly. They sold everyone, did not renew heavy contracts, started planning next season. Midfield is much lighter than least season. The only man who was creating something, Cozza, is gone to Siena. Offence was a joke and still is. Even skipper De Rosa was sold. No hope for Reggina, which is the only already relegated team.