View Full Version : MLB 27.08
[fin]juuso
27-08-06, 10:34
Milwaukee Brewers @ Florida Marlins
Under 8.5 @ 2.02 (Pinnacle) 5 units
MIL: LHP Chris Capuano (11-8, 3.55 ERA)
FLA: RHP Anibal Sanchez (5-2, 3.44 ERA)
Line of 8.5 doesn't leave a lot of room for error for the pitchers, but there are several good points for this bet. Florida is considerably worse against LHP with a .250 BA, while Milwaukee is not great against RHP with a .262 BA. Florida has a 12-20 record against LHP and quality Leftys have generally given them hard time this season. Both todays starters have been excellent lately. Floridas Anibal Sanchez has had only 1 bad start in last 8. That was a road game at Los Angeles. He has not given up more than 2 runs a game in 7 of last 8 and 1 run or less in 5 of last 8. He has a 2.78 home ERA for the season and a 1.80 ERA over last 4 starts. After a short stretch of mediocre starts, Chris Capuano has looked like his normal self lately. He has a 2.16 ERA over last 4 starts, 3 of them on the road and a 0.99 ERA over last 3 starts, spanning 19 innings of work. If we can get 6-7 innings of normal stuff from these starters, this one should have a great chance of cashing in. Neither bullpens are superb, but Floridas pen is decent and has been reasonably good lately and while Milwaukees pen might be a liability sometimes, they're capable of keeping a game close or holding a lead of few runs more often than not. Florida is on a 6 game winning streak, trying to make a late playoff push. They should use the best available relievers out of the bullpen if they have a lead or the game is tight enough in the late innings. Overall the positives for under outweights the negatives imo, so i'll take the under for medium stakes at even odds.
The Marlins are NOT considerably worse against left handed pitching. AVG is a worthless stat, what matters is OBP and SLG.
Marlins' projected lineup/OPS vs LHP/OPS vs RHP
Ramirez/.993/.715
Uggla/.892/.826
Cabrera/.984/1.025
1B/1.072(Helms)/.890(Jacobs)
Willingham/.950/.764
RF/.889(Ross)/.759(Hermida)
Olivo/.823/.772
CF/.605(Abercrombie)/.727(Amezaga)
The Marlins slap lots of singles against RHP while they draw walks and hit homers against southpaws. Only the no.8 hitter has a much higher production against RHP. Not only are they not worse against LHP, they hit considerably better against them.
[fin]juuso
27-08-06, 14:19
The Marlins are NOT considerably worse against left handed pitching. AVG is a worthless stat, what matters is OBP and SLG.
Marlins' projected lineup/OPS vs LHP/OPS vs RHP
Ramirez/.993/.715
Uggla/.892/.826
Cabrera/.984/1.025
1B/1.072(Helms)/.890(Jacobs)
Willingham/.950/.764
RF/.889(Ross)/.759(Hermida)
Olivo/.823/.772
CF/.605(Abercrombie)/.727(Amezaga)
The Marlins slap lots of singles against RHP while they draw walks and hit homers against southpaws. Only the no.8 hitter has a much higher production against RHP. Not only are they not worse against LHP, they hit considerably better against them.
Combined all at bats this season.
Florida vs. LHP .250 BA, 332 OBP, .407 SLG , .739 OPS
Florida vs. RHP .265 BA, .328 OBP, .436 SLG, .764 OPS
VS LHP: 1032 at bats, 134 runs scored
VS RHP 3274 at bats, 458 runs scored
Only stat that's marginally better vs LHP is the OBP, and it's so small that few games can tip it the other way. OBP isn't really that much more accurate measuring pitchers than BA. OPS (combined on base percentage + slugging percentage) is the most accurate way to measure the hitting prowess of a player/team.
Having considerably less at bats against lefties than righties bats makes all these stats less accurate. There are less Leftys in the league and average Lefty pitcher is slightly worse than your average righty. Quality
Lefty is about the best you can get however. and if you look closely Marlins results against quality Lefties, the cream of the league, they haven't been that impressive this season. I count Chris Capuano as one of the premier Leftys in the league. Capuano gives up very little walks. He has given up a total of 9 walks in last 61 innings pitched and doesn't give up too many homers either.
Florida has scored 4.78 rpg in games where opposing starter have been Lefty and 4.48 when starter has been Righty. The bullpens are included in these numbers, so they are not accurate.
[fin]juuso
27-08-06, 15:13
under 8.5 odds have dropped down to 1.893 at Pinny, which is quite close to my probability estimation. Still small value, but wouldn't play it myself at these odds anymore, at least not for medium stakes.
OBP is MUCH more important than AVG. Ask any sabermetrician and he'll tell you that. As for the Marlins having a better combined OPS vs LHP that's not very relevant since it includes many at bats from players that won't start today. Treanor, Borchard, Jacobs, Hermida, Aquila and Amezaga have 277 combined at bats against southpaws, 26.4% of the Marlins' total, and have a combined OPS well below .600(won't bother to calculate it), which brings the team overall OPS against LHP down a lot.
And I'm pretty sure those numbers of yours about rpg are innacurate. I only have the stats for their home games, but when a RHP starts the Marlins average 4.26 runs/game at Pro Player, compared to 4.31 rpg against southpaws.
Sunday, August 27, 2006
MLB
SAN DIEGO (PEAVY -120) Colorado (Cook)
San Diego is 5-1 their last six. Colorado is 1-7 their last eight and 2-9 their previous 11. Colorado is 4-10 at home with Aaron Cook. In Josh Peavy’s last six starts, he’s allowed just nine runs in 40 1/3 IP
[fin]juuso
27-08-06, 16:26
OBP is MUCH more important than AVG. Ask any sabermetrician and he'll tell you that. As for the Marlins having a better combined OPS vs LHP that's not very relevant since it includes many at bats from players that won't start today. Treanor, Borchard, Jacobs, Hermida, Aquila and Amezaga have 277 combined at bats against southpaws, 26.4% of the Marlins' total, and have a combined OPS well below .600(won't bother to calculate it), which brings the team overall OPS against LHP down a lot.
And I'm pretty sure those numbers of yours about rpg are innacurate. I only have the stats for their home games, but when a RHP starts the Marlins average 4.26 runs/game at Pro Player, compared to 4.31 rpg against southpaws.
You've got some valid points there about the lineup. Of course every team starts a lineup that suits them the best when facing a LHP/RHP. I might look more into individual hitting stats and game lineup data history instead of collective team hitting stats when making estimations.
Still, my main point was that Marlins have a losing record against Leftys and statistically not great numbers against the top 10 Leftys of the league. Cappy is not your average LHP and it's always possible, but unlikely that they will hit many homers or draw many walks off him. You can make projection of the expected lineup, but it's impossible to know the lineup for sure before it's announced about an hour before game time. They might not always have the 100% optimal one regarding the situation. Some backups might be played especially in a day game following a night game and certain teams have designated catcher for some of their starters regardless if they play against l/r handed starter. Should almost wait after lineups are out, but i guess you can be pretty accurate with projections.
As for those run averarages, they are almost 100% correct. I might not have updated 1 or 2 latest games, which will have a minimal difference. but they are Counted from a database with all this years results. Florida actually scores more on the road as they play their home games in a spacious pitcher friendly Dolphin stadium. These are 100% up to date numbers: They have scored 275 runs in 63 home games this season, 4,36 RPG, while on the road they have scored 324 run in 65 games, 4,98 RPG ranking 4th in the NL in runs scored on the road. I'm not sure if your numbers include unearned runs, but these ones are correct for sure.
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays,
3 units on Royals ML, 2.64 @ Pinnacle
Honestly, I didn't think that after that nasty quarrel with manager Gibbons, Ted Lilly will be back in the rotation so early. Still, it wasn't good for the overall club atmosphere, who already endured several other indisciplinary events. On the other side, the mood is on high levels - the Royals are playing relaxed, producing good baseball lately and beating a Roy Halladay who had a two run complete game is something special. Lilly was already struggling before that misbehaviour, allowing 13 runs on 17 hits (3 homers) in only 7.1 innings of his las two starts. On the other hand, we have a pitcher who, after a terrible season, has had some very encouraging outings. In his last three starts Odalis Perez is 1-2, 3.60 ERA, 0.95 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .214 off him since the All Star Break and Toronto has a colder lineup than the Royals these days (.272 against .306 in the past week).
Cincinnati Reds @ SF Giants,
3 units on Lohse over 3.5 strikeouts, 2.14 @ Pinnacle
Kyle Lohse feels great with the Reds - he is 1-0, 1.65 ERA, 1.07 WHIP in five appearances. Lohse struck out 26 batters in 27.1 innigs pitched. 67% of his throws went out for strikes in this span. Giants were struck out 15 times in the three games of the series so far.
Good luck !
GOsh at last hv the time to post, today is very nice day for me, still haven.;t lost my first bet today!!! :D
My bet for today, well two already started! I satked on Atlanta ML and Yankees OVER10.5
Giants OVER8.5 (High Stake)
Two pitchers astrostars aren;t good 3/10 only, expect real thrashing from both teams.
Oakland game Under 10 (High stake)
Two ptichers Haren and Padilla have good star today, Padilla 8/10 and Haren 7.5/10, don see too much scoring for sure, Haven;t chaeck the batters lineup.
My other analyses are:
Seattle good chance of sweeping Boston tonite.
Arizona has better luck today.
Cheers
Sunday, August 27, 2006
MLB
SAN DIEGO (PEAVY -120) Colorado (Cook)
San Diego is 5-1 their last six. Colorado is 1-7 their last eight and 2-9 their previous 11. Colorado is 4-10 at home with Aaron Cook. In Josh Peavy’s last six starts, he’s allowed just nine runs in 40 1/3 IP
Great Pick,
Colorado leading 1-0 :?
Sunday, August 27, 2006
MLB
SAN DIEGO (PEAVY -120) Colorado (Cook)
San Diego is 5-1 their last six. Colorado is 1-7 their last eight and 2-9 their previous 11. Colorado is 4-10 at home with Aaron Cook. In Josh Peavy’s last six starts, he’s allowed just nine runs in 40 1/3 IP
Great Pick,
Colorado leading 1-0 :?
1)Bashing other members' picks is forbidden. If you have something to say before the game starts say it, otherwise stay quiet.
2)There is a livescore subforum for livescore posting.
3)Since you think 1-0 is a considerable lead you probably don't know much about baseball. Refrain yourself from sharing such comments in the future. Thanks.
Cheers.
dude,
was just kiddin...relax
dude,
was just kiddin...relax
bad joke.
dude,
was just kiddin...relax
bad joke.
0-6 behind.
Hmm.. considerably bad :wink:
dude,
was just kiddin...relax
bad joke.
0-6 behind.
Hmm.. considerably bad :wink:
which part of Satyrs post do you not understand?
I bet he would understand a ban. 10/10, surebet.
[fin]juuso
27-08-06, 22:22
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
Pitcher Props:
Total walks allowed by Jeff Weaver Over 1.5 @ 2.22 (Pinnacle) 5 units
Checked some prop bets at Pinny as nothing in ordinary ml or o/u odds for the remaining games interested me. I couldn't pass up on this one. Jeff Weaver has been slightly better lately averaging about 6 innings per game over last 4. Weaver has allowed 2 or more walks in 4 of last 5 and 6 of last 8 games. last time out he walked 2 over 5 innings at New York against the Mets. This line is such a low one and odds tempting, i had to bite a little. Cubs may not be the most patient lineup at the plate, but it doesn't take much to draw 2 walks.
Hmm speechless on the lost on the GIANTS OVER, as the final score is 8-0, really suprise to see the Cinci Red can;t even score 1 run. There were so many chances in the game, it could hv been an easy OVER 8.5, anyway a lost is a lost.
Now Oakland game, an UNDER will be nice to cover this lost.
GOsh at last hv the time to post, today is very nice day for me, still haven.;t lost my first bet today!!! :D
My bet for today, well two already started! I satked on Atlanta ML and Yankees OVER10.5
Giants OVER8.5 (High Stake)
Two pitchers astrostars aren;t good 3/10 only, expect real thrashing from both teams.
Oakland game Under 10 (High stake)
Two ptichers Haren and Padilla have good star today, Padilla 8/10 and Haren 7.5/10, don see too much scoring for sure, Haven;t chaeck the batters lineup.
My other analyses are:
Seattle good chance of sweeping Boston tonite.
Arizona has better luck today.
Cheers
Oakland Under 10 won
What a great Day for me earned lots of $$$$!
Except a narrow lost from the Over in SF giants game.
Yeah today is public bank holiday!
vBulletin® v3.8.4, Copyright ©2000-2013, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
0